GTA Sales Rose 9.4%, and the Price Slide Is Easing

Welcome to the July edition. The June numbers are in, and the theme is a market gaining momentum without tipping out of balance. Sales rose almost ten per cent from a year ago, the year-over-year price decline is narrowing, and listings are down enough that buyers still have room to think. TRREB is calling 2026 a year of two halves, and the second half is starting to show.

What I am seeing right now is that people aren't frozen, but they're definitely thinking. Buyers will engage when the price and story make sense, but they're asking better questions and skipping anything that feels unclear, over-reached, or too much work.

Sales Jumped 9.4% as the Recovery Picks Up Speed

GTA REALTORS reported 6,770 sales in June, up 9.4% from a year ago, the clearest sign yet of a market finding its footing

GTA REALTORS reported 6,770 home sales through the MLS System in June 2026, up 9.4% from June 2025. After a slow first quarter, the second quarter brought a marked improvement. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld described 2026 as a year of two halves, with more competition between buyers expected in the back half of the year.

The shift is being driven by buyers who spent last year waiting. Lower borrowing costs and prices below year-ago levels have brought them back into the conversation.

This is what a steady recovery looks like: not a sudden surge, but activity building quarter over quarter as confidence slowly returns.

The Price Decline Is Starting to Run Out of Road

The average GTA price was $1,058,658 in June, down 3.9% from a year ago, but the annual rate of decline has been shrinking for months

The average selling price came in at $1,058,658 in June 2026, down 3.9% from a year earlier, and the MLS Home Price Index benchmark was off 5.4% year-over-year.

The more telling detail is direction. TRREB's Jason Mercer noted that the annual rate of decline has receded over the past few months, and that if conditions keep tightening, selling prices could move in line with 2025 and eventually post increases.

For owners, that means the market has largely stopped falling beneath you. For buyers, it suggests the stretch of clearly lower prices may be closing, and holding out for a deeper discount carries more risk than it did six months ago.

Fewer Listings, but Buyers Still Have Room to Negotiate

New listings fell 12.9% and active listings 13.5% year-over-year, tightening supply without erasing the buyer's edge

Supply pulled back in June. New listings dropped 12.9% from a year earlier to 17,282, and active listings fell 13.5% to 27,329.

Even with less to choose from, the market has not turned tight. Homes took about 29 days to sell, and buyers still have time to weigh their options rather than rush. That balance, rising demand against thinning supply, is the story of the moment.

The trend is worth watching. If sales keep strengthening while listings stay scarce, the negotiating room buyers have enjoyed this spring will not hold indefinitely. For anyone planning a purchase, these comfortable conditions are a window, not a permanent state.

From a Condo to a Detached Home, the Gap Is $730,000

June averages ran from $630,688 for a condo to $1,364,204 for a detached home, and that spread shapes almost every move

The type of home still drives the biggest swing in price. In June, the GTA average ran about $630,688 for a condo apartment, $844,579 for a townhouse, $1,038,973 for a semi-detached home, and $1,364,204 for a detached home.

That $730,000 gap between a condo and a detached home is why so many buyers move sideways before they move up. A condo or townhouse is often the realistic entry point, with the detached home a later step once equity and income catch up.

Inside the City of Toronto the numbers run higher still, with detached homes averaging $1,648,440. Knowing where you sit on that ladder, and what the next rung actually costs, is half the work of planning a move.

The Bank of Canada Held Again, and That Stability Is Helping

With the overnight rate at 2.25% and prime at 4.45%, financing is steadier than it has been in years

Much of this year's strength traces back to financing. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on June 10, its fifth hold in a row, leaving prime at 4.45%. Five-year fixed mortgages sit near 6.09%, and inflation was 3.2% in the latest reading.

Steady, predictable rates have improved affordability at the same time prices sit below last year's levels, and that combination is what brought buyers back to the table.

The Bank's next decision lands July 15. Rates can still move, so this is context rather than a forecast. If you are weighing a purchase or a refinance, it is worth securing a current rate hold and running the numbers before you commit.

C01 Is Where Downtown Toronto Still Starts With a Six

A $663,000 median puts Trinity-Bellwoods, Niagara and the downtown core roughly $90,000 below the Toronto Central benchmark

In June 2026, district C01, which runs from Trinity-Bellwoods and Niagara through Liberty Village and the downtown core, recorded 311 sales at a median of $663,000 across all home types. Condos made up about 85 per cent of those sales, so the typical condo traded closer to $609,000. It was the busiest district in Toronto Central by sales volume, and also the most affordable.

The contrast with its neighbours is the point. C02 (the Annex, Yonge-St. Clair, Casa Loma) posted a median of $1,325,000 that same month, and C03 (Forest Hill South, Yonge-Eglinton) came in at $1,200,000. Even against the broad Toronto Central benchmark of $750,000, C01 sits about $90,000 lower, a reflection of its condo-dominated mix.

For a buyer who wants to own in the core, that median is a reminder that downtown ownership still has an accessible door. The numbers suggest it is worth a serious look.

When Sellers Don't Take Their Own Advice

Preparing a home is only half the job. Acting decisively when the market responds is the other half

Preparing a home for sale means making hard decisions. One set of sellers did everything right: staging, painting, tidying the garden, moving out so the home showed at its best. The work paid off, and an offer came in quickly.

Then they hesitated. The momentum slipped, showings slowed, and the conversation shifted from the price they wanted to the range they might now accept.

Rather than relist and start cold, we used the attention the property had already earned to bring the right buyers back. No fresh start, just a clearer head and a firm plan.

The market gives you a moment. Sometimes it gives you a second one too, if you are ready to act on it.

On My Radar: Two Downtown Assignments Worth a Second Look

A pair of current assignment listings show how much value still sits at the entry level of the condo market

Assignment sales, where the original buyer sells their contract before the building closes, are quietly some of the better-priced opportunities downtown right now. Two crossed my desk this month.

A one-bedroom at 400 King West, in the heart of the Entertainment District, is listed at $499,990. And a one-bedroom with parking at Burke Condo on Sherbourne has been reduced to $459,990 from $499,990, with occupancy this August.

Both fit this month's wider theme: at the entry level, patient buyers are still finding room. Assignments carry their own rules around deposits, HST and builder consent, so they are not for everyone. If either is interesting, reply and I will walk you through how they work before you take it further.

Whether you are watching from the sidelines or getting ready to move, June's numbers point to a market that is steadier than the headlines suggest. Sales are climbing, the price slide is easing, and buyers still have room to act with a clear head. That is a rare and useful combination.