
High borrowing costs and uncertain economic conditions continued to weigh on Greater Toronto Area home sales in November 2023. Sales were down on a year-over-year basis, while listings were up from last year’s "trough" in supply. With more choice in the market, selling prices remained basically flat year-over-year. | |
Inflation and elevated borrowing costs have taken their toll on affordability | | |
"Lower rates will help alleviate affordability issues for existing homeowners and those looking to enter the market,” - Paul Baron, TREB Board President |
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Affordability has been no more apparent than in the interest rate-sensitive housing market. However, it does appear relief is on the horizon. Bond yields, which underpin fixed rate mortgages have been trending lower and an increasing number of forecasters are anticipating Bank of Canada rate cuts in the first half of 2024. | |
The average selling price was down 2.2 per cent month-over month | | |
There were 4,236 sales reported through the MLS System in November 2023 – a 6% decline compared to November 2022 |
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The MLS average selling price, of $1,082,179, in November 2023 was basically flat in comparison to November 2022. Over the same period, the number of new listings was up by 16.5 per cent. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales edged up compared to October 2023, while new listings were down by 5.5 per cent. | |
Home prices have adjusted from their peak in response to higher borrowing costs | | |
“This has provided some relief for buyers, from an affordability perspective..." - Jason Mercer, Treb Chief Market Analyst |
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| As mortgage rates trend lower next year and the population continues to grow at a record pace, expect demand to increase relative to supply. This will eventually lead to renewed growth in home prices,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. | |
“Houses and condos are meant to be homes, first and foremost..." | | |
"...It also goes without saying that further policy work is required to bring more supply online..." - John DiMichele,Treb CEO |
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Treb CEO John DiMichele recently stressed that "...We know the demand for homes, both rental and ownership, will grow for years to come. We have seen some productive policy decisions recently that should help with housing affordability, including allowing existing insured mortgage holders to switch lenders without the stress test. Additionally, in the interest of household and economic stability, we continue to call on the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) to apply the same approach to uninsured mortgages. | |
What about the looming cliff of over 2 million mortgage renewals across Canada? | | |
A recent announcement from Chrystia Freeland brings relief to those potentially impacted by the higher interest rate environment |
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Under the Canadian Mortgage Charter, lenders will have to contact homeowners four to six months in advance of their mortgage renewal to inform them of their renewal options, which must include the ability to make lump sum payments to avoid negative amortization and the option to sell their principal residence without a prepayment penalties. Lenders will also be required to offer temporary extensions of amortization periods for mortgagors at risk and to waive any fees and costs for doing so. In addition, banks won’t be able to charge “interest on interest” if a borrower is temporarily in a period of negative amortization, which means they are covering just the interest without paying down any principal. | |
For home buyers, delaying the search for the perfect deal may have repercussions | | |
The current period could be viewed as an opportune time to buy, with less competition compared to what may transpire in 2024 |
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Considering the fact that if average mortgage rates fell merely 1% point, all it would take to cancel out that nationwide affordability improvement would be a $63,000 bounce in the $656,625 price of an average home. That kind of gain can happen in two months, as it did last spring. With stagnate sale prices and anticipated rate cuts, the current market offers buyers potentially the most favourable conditions in years. However, the likelihood of this opportune period lasting for an extended duration appears low. | |
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