The GTA housing market experienced some turbulence throughout 2023; however, its enduring resilience remains the standout feature. Commencing the year with an average sales price of $1,038,668, properties saw a remarkable 15% surge by May, reaching an average sale price of $1,196,101. The latter half of the year witnessed a surge in inventory, peaking at 19,540 properties in October. The increase in inventory, paired with two additional interest rate increases in early summer dampened the increase in property values, however homes in the GTA were, on average, worth more in December 2023 than they were at the beginning of 2023, with an average sales price of $1,084,692. However, sales faced challenges, with 66,252 total properties sold in 2023, representing a 28% decrease compared to the previous five-year average. Sales will not remain as subdued in 2024. As we move through the year, we anticipate higher sales volume and more competition returning to the market. | |
Mortgage rates were a focal point in 2023, and anticipation for 2024 revolves around potential interest rate decreases | | |
Once rates do begin to wane values are likely to escalate as Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper recently highlighted |
|
“We see 2024 as an important tipping point for the national economy as the majority of Canadians acknowledge that the ultra-low interest rate era is dead and gone,” “We believe that the ‘great adjustment’ to tolerable, mid-single-digit borrowing costs will have a firm grip on our collective consciousness after only modest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.” “Based on this forecast, by the end of next year, home prices will have essentially climbed back to their pandemic peak, reached in the first quarter of 2022,” - Phil Sopher | |
The condo asset class is the only segment to slightly drop in value during the year. | | |
The condo market saw January begin with values of $687,696, despite an 8.8% increase to $748,483 during May |
|
The detached segment led the way, starting with an average sales price of $1,314,848 and achieving a robust 16% increase in May, concluding the year with an average sales price of $1,418,323—a 5.69% gain. The townhouse market secured the second spot, commencing the year at an average sale price of $976,500. A 14.45% surge in May led values to a yearly high of $1,117,696. As the year progressed values compressed and resulted in a year-end sale price of $996,162, reflecting a 2% gain. The semi-detached asset class claimed the third position, starting the year at an average sales price of $1,019,668. With a high-water price of $1,214,872 in June, values finished the year at $1,027,432, representing just under a 1% gain over the year. Conversely, the condo market concluded with an average of $682,525, marking a loss of 0.75% in 2023 and marking an excellent opportunity, particularly for first-time buyers, to enter the market while price points are stable and inventory is available. | |
Experts agree that 2024 hinges on where the Bank of Canada decides to take interest rates after a 16-month rate hike campaign | | |
After seven rate hikes, the bank paused rates in the spring of 2023 before raising them again with two consecutive rate hikes in June and July hindering continued market growth for the remainder of the past year |
|
The hikes pushed mortgage interest rates to the five to six per cent range, resulting in qualifying rates of seven to eight per cent. Homeowners, meanwhile, will be facing renewal in 2024 with drastically higher mortgage payments. It leaves the real estate market in a precarious place, industry experts say, but there may be some relief on the horizon. In mid-2024, the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates, easing financial strain on homeowners and new build projects. "Real estate is cyclical and we've hit the lowest point in the fourth quarter of 2023 in terms of sales activity and prices," said Phil Soper, CEO and president at Royal LePage. "There's going to be a tipping point next year during the spring from all this pent up demand and strong indication from the Bank of Canada that it will begin to cut rates." | |
Buyers are in the 'driver's seat' in almost all of Ontario's markets: RBC | | |
Royal LePage is forecasting aggregate home prices in Canada will rise by 3.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 on an annual basis, followed by 0.2 per cent year-over-year increase in the second quarter |
|
In the third quarter, Royal LePage anticipates home prices will rise 3.3 per cent compared to the previous year, followed by a 5.5 per cent year-over-year bump in the fourth quarter, landing at a median home price of $843,684 -- back to the highs reached during the COVID-19 pandemic. “Based on this forecast, by the end of next year, home prices will have essentially climbed back to their pandemic peak, reached in the first quarter of 2022,” the report said. Single-family home prices are anticipated to rise six per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 on an annual basis to $879,164, the report said, while condominium prices are expected to rise five per cent to $616,140 during that same period. |
|
Toronto Real Estate Board (TRREB); All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested
The information on this system is from sources deemed reliable, but should not be relied upon without independent verification. All data contained in the system is property of REALTORS ® Association of Hamilton-Burlington © 2018 or the originating source board/association.
Data provided by the Ontario Regional Technology & Information Systems. The information is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers, landlords or tenants currently under contract.
The trademarks REALTOR®, REALTORS® and the REALTOR® logo are controlled by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify real estate professionals who are members of CREA. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned
All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. The data relating
Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB); All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All properties are subject to prior sale, change or withdrawal. Neither listing broker(s) or information provider(s) shall be responsible for any typographical errors, misinformation, misprints and shall be held totally harmless. Listing(s) information is provided for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested